Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 12.520685 14.326847 16.271476 18.517125 21.035032 23.767173 26.952180
2025-06-08 9.668756 12.076206 14.869789 18.335934 22.504928 27.340676 33.356239
2025-06-15 8.331394 11.006733 14.262495 18.488011 23.795647 30.207592 38.501961
2025-06-22 7.465703 10.367347 14.049998 19.021202 25.504167 33.613506 44.457747
2025-06-29 6.527475 9.482288 13.376655 18.820958 26.159871 35.623964 48.650232
2025-07-06 5.518603 8.375316 12.280142 17.925210 25.777855 36.199601 50.936718
2025-07-13 5.110786 8.052141 12.199288 18.366869 27.175536 39.149099 56.463410
2025-07-20 4.731892 7.724377 12.068889 18.703769 28.415341 41.911783 61.834244
2025-07-27 4.296613 7.263504 11.696376 18.643760 29.057658 43.842391 66.101890
2025-08-03 3.876424 6.781419 11.245017 18.418178 29.419676 45.361126 69.818214
2025-08-10 3.562224 6.435919 10.968824 18.425596 30.107459 47.356751 74.281556
2025-08-17 3.324905 6.192632 10.829028 18.624401 31.080071 49.795329 79.477175
2025-08-24 3.056761 5.878106 10.558750 18.609436 31.738602 51.823461 84.202430
2025-08-31 2.784864 5.530979 10.206627 18.433673 32.126051 53.448601 88.381716
2025-09-07 2.600172 5.320265 10.063362 18.584280 33.030322 55.891774 93.894719
2025-09-14 2.495407 5.246306 10.148044 19.120727 34.587559 59.419987 101.238474
2025-09-21 2.285782 4.953056 9.821306 18.919277 34.891237 60.942866 105.440368
2025-09-28 1.997778 4.478022 9.127775 18.019439 33.947141 60.381340 106.237934
2025-10-05 1.918161 4.411604 9.181822 18.463131 35.342034 63.720238 113.520682
2025-10-12 1.830583 4.320208 9.180585 18.801615 36.562441 66.808080 120.492545
2025-10-19 1.702001 4.129966 8.974162 18.741323 37.061762 68.686875 125.498934
2025-10-26 1.565800 3.909601 8.691172 18.514689 37.241541 70.015196 129.608842
2025-11-02 1.465806 3.759149 8.535952 18.522141 37.846174 72.095569 135.070367